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BTC Exceeded $40K, Returning to The World’s 10th Largest Asset by Market Cap

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Major Jason Lowery of the US Space Force has proposed a novel perspective on Bitcoin, extending its importance far beyond the financial sector to the fields of defense and cybersecurity. In a detailed letter to the Innovation Committee of the US Department of Defense (DoD), Lowery believes that Bitcoin and similar Proof of Work (PoW) protocols have significant strategic importance and urges the government to conduct more in-depth research on their potential applications.

Lowery believes that Bitcoin and its underlying technologies can serve as contemporary tools for “offsetting strategies” (military strategies that leverage technological advancements to balance opponents), potentially redefining the landscape of cyber warfare and defense. The government is delving deeper into their potential applications.

Lowery describes Bitcoin as a pioneering “macro chip,” a concept that transforms the global power grid into a massive, resource intensive computer. He believes that this innovative approach introduces physical costs into the digital field and provides a new way to protect large amounts of data on the Internet.

Impacted by a wide range of news and market expectations, the latest market trend shows that the price of Bitcoin has now exceeded $40,000, with a maximum increase of $40,250. The current price is $40058.85, with a 24-hour increase of 1.45%. The price of Ethereum has recently broken through $2,200, reaching a maximum of $2,217.27. The current price is reported at $2,195.41, with a 24-hour increase of 1.45%.

According to the latest data from 8marketcap, Bitcoin’s market value has risen by 1.57% in the past 24 hours to $784.11 billion, surpassing Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ($777.3 billion) and Tesla ($759.22 billion) to become the world’s tenth largest asset in terms of market value.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen a total of 51829 people sell out of $108 million in contracts across the entire network. Among them, multiple orders were sold out for $40.9338 million, and short orders were sold out for $66.9936 million. By currency, BTC has a liquidation of approximately $29.2782 million, accounting for the largest proportion. ETH has a liquidation of approximately $13.6547 million, ORDI has a liquidation of approximately $8.1314 million, SOL has a liquidation of approximately $5.1901 million, and USTC has a liquidation of approximately $4.2576 million.

In terms of data fluctuations, according to Twitter user Ai Yi’s monitoring, a total of four addresses have purchased 7.7 million BIGTIMEs worth 1.61 million US dollars in the past seven days. The address starting with 0x8D7 has already made a profit this afternoon, with a profit of 380000 US dollars; The remaining three addresses have not been sold yet.

On November 27th, the Bigtime project team signed multiple addresses and transferred 20 million BIGTIMEs to market makers to expand their market making scale. Currently, none of the three market makers have transferred/sold these tokens, with Amber Group holding 5 million, GSR Markets holding 12.5 million, and FBG Capital holding 2.5 million.

According to the November security report released by SlowMist, there were a total of 47 security vulnerability incidents in the blockchain field in November 2023, resulting in a cumulative loss of approximately 349 million US dollars. The total losses caused by the Poloniex, HTX, and Heco Bridge incidents reached 243 million US dollars, accounting for approximately 69% of the total losses from security incidents this month.

There were a total of 24 Rug Pull incidents, accounting for 51% of the total number of security incidents. Users should fully understand the background and team of the project before participating, and carefully choose investments. There were two liquidity attacks, resulting in losses of approximately $54.99 million.

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In addition, there were three major incidents related to third-party service vulnerabilities this month, and the project should collaborate with specialized security companies to conduct a comprehensive audit of these external services.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

The monthly trend has risen for three consecutive months, and bullish trading volume is expected to continue. The strategy for this period is to wait for a breakthrough above $37,980, with the next targets at $40,495 and $42,015. Note that the short-term is relatively high; the long-term bullish target is expected to reach $120,400 and $128,350, with a potential pullback in Q1 next year.

ETH

This week, there were four successful attempts to break the resistance level at $2,135. The substantial volume and repeated upward movements indicate a strong bullish momentum. The current breakout is expected to reach the target of $2,381, and the long-term targets are $7,840, $10,645, and $12,383.

The market is fully priced and interest rates will be lowered next year

Last week, after a hawkish member of the Federal Reserve made rare “dovish remarks,” market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut exploded.

Although many officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have attempted to regulate market expectations of the Fed’s interest rate cuts, the market seems to have only two words in their eyes – “interest rate cuts.”

After Powell’s speech last Friday, gold briefly surged to $2,070 per ounce, setting a new high since May. The S&P 500 index hit a new high this year, with the Dow hitting a new high for the year and setting a record for the longest consecutive weekly gains since the end of 2021.

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In terms of oil prices, although OPEC+announced production cuts as scheduled, the market did not buy it and believed that the so-called voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+were just “empty words,” causing a significant drop in oil prices.

Over the past five weeks, there have been significant changes in market dynamics. A series of events, including the US non-farm payroll report and CPI data softening, as well as the key shift by key hawkish Federal Reserve director Waller, have led the market to consider that if inflation continues to subside, the Federal Reserve may be willing to consider lowering interest rates in the first half of 2024, triggering a “2023 version of everything rebound.”

Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continued to retain the option of raising interest rates, the subtle differences in his words were still discovered by traders to support their belief that the Fed had ended its interest rate hikes. The US stock market rose, the US dollar fell, and triggered a “gold rush.”

Powell’s description of the current policy setting has undergone subtle changes. Although he previously stated in October that interest rates were “not too tight,” he now states that interest rates have “entered a restricted range.”

Powell added, “the full impact of our tightening policy may not have been felt yet.” Powell added that given the better balance between not doing enough and the risk of excessive tightening, the committee acted “cautiously” on this point.

Obviously, as a pillar of the Federal Reserve, Powell had to keep the option of raising interest rates. He said that if the timing is right, the Federal Reserve is prepared to further tighten its policy, but the market is not very receptive, just like other Federal Reserve officials taking turns this week. Traders only believe in the “rate cut remarks” of Federal Reserve hawkish director Waller, and ignore warnings from other Federal Reserve officials that there may be further rate hikes in the event of unexpected inflation.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller also publicly stated last week that if inflation continues to decline within a few months, he may consider lowering interest rates, adding fuel to market speculation. Waller’s remarks, especially considering his previous hawkish stance, have greatly attracted market attention and increased speculation about possible interest rate cuts.

Therefore, the market has fully priced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May next year, and has increased expectations for the Fed’s rate cut next year from 90 basis points to around 115 basis points.

Due to more and more people betting that the Federal Reserve will significantly lower interest rates next year, the US dollar has been affected recently. And this week, as Federal Reserve officials enter the usual “silent period,” investors may shift their attention back to economic data.

This Tuesday, the November ISM non manufacturing PMI and JOLTS October job vacancies will be announced, followed by Wednesday. The November ADP report (small non-farm payroll) may be carefully scrutinized by the market before the major event of the week – the November non-farm payroll report.

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The report to be released on Friday is expected to show a stable unemployment rate of 3.9%, with non-farm payroll increasing from 150000 in October to 175000 in November.

Currently, a slight acceleration in the 3.9% unemployment rate and non-farm payroll is unlikely to shake market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times next year. Unless wage growth accelerates again, the number of non-farm payroll exceeds expectations significantly.

This may raise concerns among some that inflation may rebound in the coming months, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period than currently expected.

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