President Nicolás Maduro has won the Venezuelan election with 51% of the vote
- The election result saw him beat opposition rival Edmundo González Urrutia
- The result goes against the international media narrative concerning the election
Following an electoral race marked by social media disinformation and algorithmic curation, pro-government crowds gathered on Sunday in front of the presidential palace to celebrate the victory of President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s latest election.
With 80% of ballots counted, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced just after midnight on Monday that Maduro won re-election securing 51.2% of the votes and surpassing the 44% polled by Edmundo González Urrutia of the opposition alliance.
Despite frequent accusations against the Chavista government of undermining democracy to secure its grip on power, the opposition remained hopeful yet pragmatic as D-day approached.
Sunday’s election saw one of its best chances at unseating Maduro since he succeeded Hugo Chavez in 2013, with many feeling that victory was within reach. Independent polls indicated that Maduro was trailing behind González Urrutia in voter support and social media sentiment.
Yet social media’s pervasive reach often leads commentators to mistake online opinions for a true reflection of societal views. This misconception is sometimes shared by politicians, who may interpret debates in these virtual spaces as representative of public sentiment, particularly when it aligns with their own agendas.
Fuelled by the press, influencers, and echo chambers created by social media, the result is a skewed vision of reality.
As an example, a recent study revealed that over 60% of Facebook users are completely unaware of the platform’s curation processes, mistakenly believing that every post from their friends and followed pages appears in their news feed.
In reality, most of the content a user subscribes to never actually reaches their feed. Facebook’s algorithm curates what users see based on several factors: primarily, whether a post has been promoted through paid advertising, but also taking into account past interactions (such as likes, comments, or shares) and the overall engagement other users had with similar content.
It has been proven that social media and opinion polls tend to overrepresent the views expressed by the most reactionary and polarised users.
The outcome we have seen in Venezuela where Maduro achieved a resounding victory despite seemingly contradictory surveys and public sentiment, has also been observed in other countries.
Contrary to pre-election polls in France’s most recent legislative elections, the National Rally (RN), the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen and her 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, will not emerge as the dominant force in the lower house of parliament.
Despite capturing the largest share of votes in the initial round, the RN, along with its right-wing allies led by Eric Ciotti, secured only 143 seats, falling short of a majority.
Similarly, in Nigeria’s 2023 election, most polls predicted that Labour Party candidate Peter Obi would win the election and become the next president.
As the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) tallied and compiled the votes following the elections, anxious supporters and pollsters began to feel a familiar sense of déjà vu. The number of ballots favoring Bola Tinubu, the now president-elect, exceeded the projections made by the polls.
While Venezuela’s results are being questioned by many, the discrepancies can be attributed in part to the role of social media and its algorithms.
As has been expressed on X by the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, ‘The people of Venezuela voted on the future of their country peacefully and in large numbers. Their will must be respected.’
In addition, all of Cuba, Russia, China, Nicaragua, and Bolivia have congratulated Maduro on his victory, confirming the view that it is the result, not online perceptions, that matter most.