The world of work is always changing, and keeping up can feel like a lot. This year, the Indeed Hiring Lab has been looking closely at what’s happening in the job market for 2025. It turns out things are a bit mixed, with some parts of the economy doing really well while others are facing a tougher time. We’ll break down what this means for job seekers and employers alike.
Key Takeaways
- The tech sector has seen a lot of ups and downs, but the rest of the job market has stayed pretty steady.
- While CEOs talk about AI causing job cuts, the reality is more complex, with companies also using it to show they’re becoming more efficient.
- Entry-level jobs in tech, especially those involving marketing or HR tasks, are feeling the pinch the most, partly due to AI.
- We’re seeing shifts in job requirements, with employers often preferring candidates with more experience.
- Broader economic factors like immigration and tourism, as seen in restaurant hiring, also give us clues about the overall health of the job market.
Indeed Hiring Lab’s Analysis of Divergent Labor Market Trends
The Tale of Two Economies: Tech Sector Volatility Versus Broad Market Resilience
Looking back at the labor market from 2020 through mid-2025, it’s clear we saw two very different stories playing out. On one side, the tech industry, especially software development, went through a wild ride – a real boom and then a significant bust. But at the same time, the overall job market across the country held up surprisingly well. We saw unemployment rates stay low, even when a big part of the economy, tech, was shrinking. It’s a bit of a puzzle, really, trying to figure out what caused these two trends to happen at the same time.
Examining Software Development Job Postings on Indeed
If you look at the numbers for software development jobs posted on Indeed, the ups and downs are pretty obvious. We used early 2020 as a starting point, setting it at an index of 100. After dipping in mid-2020 due to the pandemic, job postings for software developers shot up. By early 2022, things were really high, but then they started to fall off. It shows just how much that sector was swinging.
Unpacking the Counterintuitive Narrative of 2025
It might seem strange, but even as tech jobs were struggling, other parts of the economy were also cooling down, but not as dramatically. Some economists noted that tech job postings actually followed a similar pattern to the rest of the economy, even in areas that don’t have much to do with AI. This suggests that while AI is a factor, it’s not the only reason for the changes we’re seeing. The idea that tech is completely separate from the broader job market isn’t quite accurate anymore.
Here’s a quick look at how tech job postings changed:
- Early 2020: Baseline Index = 100
- Mid-2020: Index dropped to around 60
- Early 2022: Index reached its peak
- Mid-2025: Index showed a significant decline from the peak
This pattern highlights the unique pressures and shifts within the tech sector compared to the more stable performance of the wider economy.
AI’s Evolving Role in Tech Industry Employment
It feels like everywhere you look, CEOs are talking about AI. And if you read the layoff notices, you might think artificial intelligence is the main reason people are losing their jobs in tech. But honestly, the situation is a lot more complex than that. Companies are trying to look good to investors, showing they’re getting more efficient, especially as AI changes things up.
Indeed’s own data shows that tech job postings in July were down quite a bit from where they were at the start of 2020. AI is a factor, sure, but it’s not the only thing slowing down a comeback. Some economists point out that the tech job market has actually cooled off in a way that looks pretty similar to the rest of the economy, even in areas that don’t have much to do with AI.
Assessing AI’s Impact on Tech Layoffs
So, is AI directly causing these layoffs? It’s hard to say for sure. While AI will definitely take over some tasks, it’s also creating new jobs. The people who can work with AI, helping companies come up with new ideas and products, are the ones who will likely be in demand. Think about companies like Meta, actively hiring top AI talent. It’s a bit of a balancing act for big tech firms – keeping enough people on staff while also letting AI take the lead where it makes sense.
The Complicated Reality Behind CEO Statements on AI
When tech leaders talk about AI, it’s often tied to their company’s financial performance. For example, Microsoft’s job cuts might improve their profit outlook. But what does this mean for the average tech worker? It’s a mixed bag. AI specialists are doing better than general software engineers, though even those roles aren’t as hot as they were a couple of years ago. Machine learning engineers, often seen as the go-to AI job, still have more postings than before the pandemic, but they’ve dropped from their 2022 peak. The sector’s ups and downs affect these jobs too.
Indeed Hiring Lab’s Perspective on AI and Job Market Cooling
Indeed’s research suggests that the tech job market has cooled down, but not necessarily because of AI alone. Other parts of the job market have seen similar slowdowns. It’s like the tech sector is following the broader economic trends, even in areas not directly related to AI. This suggests that while AI is a significant force, it’s part of a larger economic picture that’s influencing hiring across the board. The job market is definitely changing, and AI is a big part of that story, but it’s not the only chapter.
Navigating the Shifting Landscape of Tech Hiring
So, the tech job market feels a bit all over the place right now, doesn’t it? It’s not quite the boom times we saw a couple of years ago, and figuring out where things are headed can be tricky. It seems like companies are trying to balance growth with efficiency, and AI is a big part of that conversation.
Deep Dive into Entry-Level Tech Job Impacts
When you look at jobs for people just starting out in tech, there’s definitely been a slowdown. We’re seeing fewer postings for roles that used to be plentiful. It’s not just one thing, but the overall economic climate and the push for more automation play a part. This means new grads and those early in their careers might find the job hunt a bit tougher than expected.
Experience Requirements in a Changing Tech Market
What kind of experience are companies looking for these days? Well, it’s shifting. While some entry-level roles are fewer, there’s a growing demand for people with specific skills, especially those related to AI and data science. Even for roles that aren’t directly AI-focused, companies seem to want candidates who can adapt and learn new technologies quickly. It’s less about just having a degree and more about demonstrating practical skills and a willingness to keep up. For instance, Canada’s tech industry is experiencing a persistent talent shortage, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% as of May 2025, according to Statistics Canada.
Identifying Jobs Most Vulnerable to AI Advancements
It’s a question on a lot of people’s minds: which tech jobs are most likely to be changed by AI? While AI is creating new opportunities, some tasks that were previously done by humans are now being automated. Roles that involve repetitive data processing or routine coding might see more changes. However, it’s not always about job replacement; often, it’s about how the job is done. Think of AI as a tool that can help workers be more productive, rather than just taking their place. The key for many will be adapting their skills to work alongside these new technologies.
Broader Economic Indicators and Labor Market Insights
It’s easy to get lost in the tech sector’s ups and downs, but we also need to look at the bigger picture. The overall labor market has been surprisingly steady, even when tech jobs were shaky. This resilience is something we need to understand better.
Understanding Employment Data Revisions
Sometimes, the numbers we get about jobs aren’t quite right when they first come out. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) often revises these figures later on. These revisions can tell us a lot about how the economy is actually doing. For instance, large downward revisions might signal that the economy is slowing down more than we initially thought. It’s like getting a clearer picture after the initial fog lifts. These adjustments are important for making accurate forecasts.
The Influence of Immigration on the Labor Force
Immigration plays a significant role in how many people are working and looking for jobs. Changes in immigration policies can directly affect the labor supply. More workers coming into the country can help fill job openings, especially in sectors that have trouble finding staff. It’s a complex factor, but it definitely shapes the overall employment landscape. We’re seeing discussions about how these policies might impact growth, and it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Restaurant Hiring as a Barometer for Tourism
Think about restaurants. When they’re hiring a lot of people, it often means more customers are coming in. This is especially true for places that rely on tourism. If restaurants are busy and expanding their staff, it’s a good sign that people are traveling and spending money. It’s a simple way to gauge the health of the travel industry and, by extension, parts of the broader economy. It’s like checking the pulse of consumer activity. You can find out more about new communication tech on the Apple store.
Here’s a quick look at how revisions can change the picture:
| Month | Initial Jobs Report | Revised Jobs Report |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | +250,000 | +220,000 |
| Feb 2025 | +200,000 | +185,000 |
| Mar 2025 | +300,000 | +270,000 |
As you can see, revisions can sometimes be quite significant, showing a slightly different story than the first report suggested.
Indeed Hiring Lab’s Economic Forecasting and Analysis
Looking ahead to 2025, Indeed Hiring Lab is focused on dissecting the economic signals that will shape the job market. We’re paying close attention to how various data points come together to paint a picture of the economy’s health.
Previewing the 2025 Economic Measurement Seminar
The upcoming 2025 Economic Measurement Seminar is shaping up to be a key event for anyone trying to make sense of economic data. It’s designed to give professionals a look at how economic figures are put together and what they really tell us. Think of it as a chance to get a sneak peek into the nuts and bolts of economic reporting.
- Understanding the real story behind employment numbers.
- Figuring out trends in GDP, inflation, and how productive we are.
- Learning about new ways to track business sentiment and economic shifts.
This seminar is a great place to get practical insights, and it’s why people keep coming back year after year. You can find more details and register at NABE.com/EMS2025.
Key Topics in Economic Data Interpretation
We’re seeing a lot of discussion around how to properly interpret economic data, especially with the rapid changes happening. For instance, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) conducts regular surveys that give us a look at what forecasters are thinking. Their Outlook Survey, for example, gathers opinions from many professional forecasters on where the economy is headed for the next year or two. It’s a way to gauge the general sentiment and expectations.
Insights from NABE Outlook and Flash Surveys
The NABE Outlook and Flash Surveys provide a regular pulse check on the economy. These surveys collect forecasts from economists on key metrics like GDP growth and inflation. For example, the April 2025 Outlook survey, which included input from 32 forecasters, gave a snapshot of expectations for 2025 and 2026. These kinds of reports help us understand the consensus view, even as conditions can change quickly. It’s like getting a weather report for the economy, but with more numbers and fewer clouds. We also see similar efforts in tracking business conditions, like the NABE Business Conditions Survey, which gives us a look at how companies are feeling about their own situations and the near-term future. It’s all part of building a clearer picture, much like how Virgin Galactic is building new spacecraft for space tourism.
Sector-Specific Trends and Inflationary Pressures
When we look at the economy, it’s not just one big picture. Different parts of it are doing different things, and that’s especially true when we talk about inflation. You know, the cost of stuff going up. It’s like looking at a mixed bag of news, really.
Analyzing Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Policy
So, the latest numbers show that inflation is sticking around more than some people expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is now predicted to hit a 3.4% annual rate by the end of 2025. That’s up from earlier guesses. The same goes for the personal consumption expenditure price index, which is now expected to be 3.5% annually. It’s a bit of a surprise, honestly. Because of this, the Federal Reserve isn’t really changing its plan for interest rates much. They’re still thinking about a small cut in the third quarter of 2025 and another one in the fourth quarter. It’s a delicate balancing act for them, trying to keep prices from going wild without slowing down the economy too much.
The Impact of Tariffs on Economic Reporting
Tariffs, those taxes on imported goods, are also playing a role in all of this. They seem to be making things more expensive, and it’s showing up in the inflation numbers. Some reports suggest that businesses are passing these costs onto consumers. It makes tracking the real cost of goods a bit trickier. We’re seeing forecasts for economic growth get lowered because of these tariff announcements. It’s a reminder that global trade policies can have a pretty big effect right here at home.
Understanding Core Services Inflation Dynamics
One area that’s really catching attention is ‘core services inflation.’ This is basically the cost of services, minus things like housing and energy, which can be pretty jumpy. Right now, this part of inflation is proving to be stubborn. It’s like a sticky situation that’s hard to get out of. This is a big reason why the overall inflation numbers aren’t coming down as fast as hoped. It affects everything from haircuts to car repairs, and it’s something the Fed is watching very closely. It’s also worth noting how data collection methods can influence these reports, making it important to look at trends over time. For instance, understanding how companies like Elevator help teams find new roles could be a small part of the bigger picture of workforce shifts Elevator.
Here’s a quick look at some of the inflation forecasts:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast for end of 2025: 3.4% (up from 3.0%)
- Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index forecast for end of 2025: 3.5% (up from 2.7%)
- Federal Funds Rate outlook: Still expecting a 25-basis-point cut in Q3 2025 and another in Q4 2025.
Looking Ahead: What the 2025 Labor Market Means
So, what does all this data really tell us about the job market in 2025? It’s clear things are pretty mixed. While the tech world saw some big ups and downs, especially with new AI tools changing the game, the overall job market held up pretty well, with unemployment staying low. We saw a lot of tech job postings drop, particularly for entry-level roles that AI can now handle, like writing or customer service. But jobs needing hands-on skills, like healthcare workers, seemed much less affected. It’s a complicated picture, and it looks like companies are trying to get more efficient, maybe to get ready for even bigger changes down the road. Keeping an eye on these trends will be key for anyone looking for work or trying to hire in the coming year.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the main difference between the tech job market and the rest of the job market in 2025?
The tech world saw a lot of ups and downs, like a rollercoaster, with many job openings appearing and then disappearing quickly. However, most other jobs across the country stayed pretty steady, with unemployment rates staying low, even when tech had a tough time.
Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) really causing tech companies to lay off workers?
While some CEOs say AI is the reason for job cuts, the situation is more complex. Companies might be using AI as an excuse to make themselves more efficient, especially when talking to investors. It’s hard to say for sure if AI is the main cause, as other factors are at play too.
Which tech jobs are most affected by AI and the changing job market?
Entry-level jobs in tech, especially those in areas like marketing, helping out with office tasks, and human resources, seem to be hit the hardest. Jobs that involve tasks AI can easily do, like writing or creating images, are also more at risk.
Are jobs requiring more experience safer from AI?
Yes, it appears that people with more experience, particularly those with five or more years in the tech field, are doing better. The job market seems to favor those with established skills and a proven track record over newcomers.
How does immigration affect the number of jobs available?
Immigration plays a role in shaping the overall workforce. Changes in immigration policies can influence the number of people looking for jobs, which in turn can affect the labor supply and economic growth.
What can restaurant hiring tell us about the economy?
Looking at how many people restaurants are hiring can be a good clue about how well other parts of the economy, like tourism, are doing. If restaurants are busy and hiring, it often means people are spending money and traveling more.
